Close examination of the CBO’s projections cannot support anything resembling hysteria. The two things that have everyone terrified, Social Security and Medicare, actually look quite unthreatening.
In 2010, Social Security spending was 4.8% of GDP. In 2021, the CBO projects it will be 5.3%, an increase of 0.5 point. In 2010, Medicare spending (less premiums paid by beneficiaries) was 3.1% of GDP. In 2021, the CBO projects it will be 3.6%, also an increase of 0.5 point.
In other words, the budgetary monsters that are supposed to be the ruin of the American way of life will increase their share of the national economy by about 1%. That’s a bit less than what the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are costing us, and less than half the cost of the Bush tax cuts.
This is not a long-term fiscal emergency; it’s what you’d expect after an economic crisis. But budget hawks — and they’re not all Republicans — are trying to pass off current levels of red ink as the new normal, even though it isn’t. They’ve had it out for Social Security and Medicare — programs that work very well, cost little to run and are immensely popular — ever since they were created.
(Source: azspot)
